So Palin gave a good speech? Well, how could she fail to, after the liberal press painted her as a rube, small-town mayor, ignorant backwoods bigot, inexperienced hockey mom etc etc? I wish I had bet on Palin to be the choice a month ago when there were odds as good as 33-1, but I decided that my financial situation meant a blanket ban on bets was necessary.
Here are some reasons why she is a good candidate. After these, I’ll give my run-down of why I think it was a strategically excellent pick.
She has a proven track record of bi-partisan deals. She has a proven track record of attacking special interests. She has a proven track record of defeating favourites in the race, and of defeating incumbent politicians. She is in favour of drilling, and, as a resident of a state containing the natural beauty many fear will be tarnished by that drilling, she is perfect to explain why it is a good choice of policy. She has a proven track record of pruning government spending. And she is clearly a fine woman with a very likeable personality.
There are a number of reasons why I thought McCain would, and should, choose Palin. The reason that I came to latest was the most superficial – she shook up the race. Remember when McCain was the crotchety old man a steady way behind in the polls with nothing positive to offer but barbs at Obama? Remember when Obama’s was the exciting ticket and McCain was the safe choice? Well, that was a couple of weeks ago. That grumpy old man has gone, and the race is now full of energy and excitement on both sides. The outcry amongst the press corps has done McCain a great favour in that regard.
More substantially, her selection reminds people of who McCain really is, and makes it even harder for the Democrats to push their poorly thought out line of attack. Every Democrat knows McCain is not just a Bush clone. Even convinced Democrats don’t believe it when they mouth Obama’s choice of attack – ‘four more years of Bush’. Independents and moderates, presumably those whom Obama wants to target with his Bush attacks, know very well McCain isn’t just like Bush – they will have found themselves supporting McCain in his adherence to policies Bush didn’t support.
Furthermore, Obama needs to get the support of people who voted Bush last time. Consequently, he should be more subtle in the way he deals with Bush. Even if Bush’s ratings are at 30%, there are another 20% of people who liked what he said and did enough to vote for him after being governed by him for 4 years. Compare the Tories’ subtler paring away of Blair from Brown and identifying with the aspirations of Blair supporters with Obama’s flat-out rejection of Bush. It sounds like a judgement on those who voted for him in 2004, but they are the people who need to be wooed.
Palin’s pick puts McCain in a perfect position to capitalise: it is a glaring symbol of the falseness of the claim that McCain is McSame, whilst placing McCain in a good position to appeal to those who voted for Bush but don’t think he delivered on what they wanted.
Thirdly, and most importantly, she has energised the base. The importance of this could be huge. In 2004 Democrats complained that Kerry hadn’t managed to get out his vote, and Obama supporters believe that their base will be doubly keen to vote this time. They have devoted a great deal of resources to getting people to vote, and also, obviously, will be expecting a boost in black voting numbers. The support of the evangelicals was considered to be vital to Bush’s two victories: well, now they’re back in the game, and instantly,those Bush state that looked likely Dem gains are looking less ripe for the plucking.
Fourthly, she appeals to blue-collar voters. This could be crucial in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
A fifth benefit, which I didn’t foresee, is that she has drawn such a storm of vicious criticism and ridicule, that there is almost certain to be a backlash against the Democrats. All sorts of nasty misogynistic, judgemental, snobbish, elitist attitudes have been on brazen display for anyone who doesn’t share those attitudes (and most swing voters won’t) to see. Obama declared families off limits, and Biden came out with kind comments about McCain, both signs that the campaign recognises that there is a danger in them becoming tainted with the nastiness.
I’ve thought all along, that if Obama’s lead is within one or two points in the last couple of weeks, McCain will edge the victory. In my view, Palin’s pick has made a tight race much more likely. It’s certainly going to be an interesting two months.
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